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EBM Metric (A2I)Interactive Tool

Innovation Rate & Experiment Size Calculator

Stop over-planning on ambition and start allocating capacity on evidence. By predicting how much of each sprint emergent work will consume, you protect the time your team actually has to innovate.

Sprint Item-Mix History

Enter the count of Stories (Innovative) and Bugs/Spikes/Tasks (Emergent) completed.

SprintStories (Innovative)Emergent WorkInnovation Rate
S
80.0%
S
68.2%
S
62.5%
S
72.2%
S
61.5%
S
69.2%
S
90.0%

What does this count proxy represent?

In Scrum.org's **Evidence-Based Management (EBM)** framework, the Innovation Rate measures how much of your effort goes toward building new capabilities rather than maintaining old ones. Tracking that effort directly is notoriously painful, so instead of timesheets, we count completed Product Backlog Items and sort them into two groups: **Innovative** work (stories that create new value) and **Emergent** work (bugs, spikes, and maintenance). That simple count becomes a reliable, board-level proxy you can read at a glance.

Read the full Innovation Rate guide →

Empirical Rates

Calculated using the **Sorting Method** (historical rank percentile).

90% Confidence (Safe)61.5%
85% Confidence (Recommended)62.5%
75% Confidence (Stretch)62.5%
50% Confidence (Coin Flip / Average)69.2%
**How it works**: Order your historical Innovation Rates from lowest to highest, and the percentile tells you what to expect: in 85% of future sprints, your rate should land at or above **62.5%**.

Sprint Experiment Planner

Calculate the predictable number of new Stories to pull into your Sprint Backlog.

Total items (from Monte Carlo)
Risk appetite level

Target Innovation Rate

62.5%

Confidence Interval

85% Likely

Stories (Innovation)

8

Max Planned Experiments

Bugs/Spikes (Emergent)

5

Reserved Slack Capacity

**PST Recommendation**: Commit to **8** new Stories next sprint and hold the remaining **5** items in reserve for the defects and spikes you can't predict but know are coming.