The Math of Predictability: Answering "When Will It Be Done?" with Confidence
“We have gut-feel estimates that fail the moment uncertainty strikes. We want to have probabilistic forecasting that accounts for real-world variability.”
Ditch the Crystal Ball
Replace "average velocity" with data-driven confidence intervals and spot bottlenecks before they kill your deadline.
Monte Carlo Simulations
Replace gut-feel estimates with data-driven confidence intervals that account for real-world variability.
Flow Metrics
Use Cycle Time and work-in-progress limits to spot bottlenecks before they kill your deadline—and see exactly where work gets stuck in your pipeline.
Evidence-Based Management
Stop measuring activity and start measuring outcomes. Use EBM to track what leadership actually cares about: time-to-market, customer satisfaction, and whether delivery is improving.
Audience Feedback
What attendees say about this topic from 8 presentations.
“Like the thought you put into the Monte Carlo system”
“I enjoyed learning about the multiple ways I can determine probability of work from developers to give my stakeholders confidence of when things will be ready for production.”
“This session taught relevant data based techniques for planning! I loved the interactive miro, and tools that can be brought to the team, leadership and stakeholders.”
Related Talks & Appearances
Conference sessions and media appearances on this topic.
Conference Sessions
- Global Scrum Gathering Vancouver 20262026
- Kansas City Developer Conference2025
- Scrum Masters of the Universe2024
- Agile Brigade2024
- Agile Lean Ireland2024
- Ignite Agility2024
- FlutterUKI2024
- Agile International2024
Podcasts & Media
Agile Metrics Mashup
YouTube Series
Zelda's Guide to Agile
Talk Recording
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